HomeMy WebLinkAbout8 - LOOKING AT INVESTMENT ANALYSIS LA FITNESSLOOKING AT INVESTMENT ANALYSIS LA FITNESS
GOOD EVENING MAYOR, MAYOR PRO TEM, COUNCIL MEMBERS, AND ALL STAFF MEMBERS FROM SEAL BEACH AND COUNSEL.
MY NAME IS STEPHEN HAVENS, A RESIDENT OF ROSSMOOR LIVING ON KEMPTON DR FOR 45 YEARS.
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OUTLINE OF DISCUSSION
EARLY DAY STUDY OF MICRO/MACRO ECONOMICS AT UCLA TAUGHT ME THAT EVERY CRITICAL DECISION REQUIRES ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.
WE ARE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND THE OVERALL EFFECT
ON HOMEOWNERS IN AREA AND THE RETURNS TO GOVERNMENT (ORANGE COUNTY AND SEAL BEACH) IF THE LA FITNESS GOES IN.
GREATEST EFFECT WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY CAUSED BY TRAFFIC FACTORS,
PARKING OVERFLOW, NOISE, CRIME, PEDESTRIAN SAFETY. DEMAND WILL DECREASE FOR REAL ESTATE IN AREA PER DISCUSSION LOCAL BROKERS.
PESONALLY I AM REAL ESTATE BROKER, CPA, MBA, AND USED TO
BUILD HOMES FOR HUD APPROVED HOUSING. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT HOMEOWNERS WITH IN 1000 LF OF THE PROPOSED HEALTH CLUB WILL HAVE THEIR PROPERTY VALUE DECREASE BY AT LEAST $25,000-50,000/YEAR.
THE RESULTS: WILL BE LOST PROPERTY TAXES TO ORANGE COUNTY AND SEAL BEACH.
LET’S LOOK AT SPREAD SHEET IN YOUR FOLDER OR ON THE CHART IN FRONT OF ME.
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EXPLANATION OF DATA
LOOKING AT COLUMN HEADINGS LEFT TO RIGHT
NOTE THE PROJECT DESCRIPTION FOR EACH ASSET CLASS, NOTE THE AVERAGE VALUATION. WE EXTEND THE COLUMNS AND CREATE A WEIGHTED AVERAGE FOR THE TOTALS.
COMPUTE
TOTAL VALUE DECREASE AT 5% OF TOTAL. Average loss of Value: $30,903/HOME OR A TOTAL OF $27.3 MIL.
USING 1.8% PROPERTY TAX %, MULTIPLY TOTAL LOSS 1.8% = $492,282
BACK OUT PROPERTY
TAX GAIN FROM NEW HEALTH CLUB
NET LOSS OF REVENUE = $259,182
PRESENT VALUE THIS LOSS OVER 30 YEARS USING 3% INTEREST RATE ….ALLOCATE % to Seal Beach.
SUMMARY:
Home Owners LOSE $27
mil; Orange County LOSES $5 mil; Seal Beach LOSES $1.8
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Conclusion of Analysis
RESIDENTS SUBSIDIZE COST OF HEALTH CLUB of $30,903 PER UNIT
ORANGE COUNTY GOVERNMENT LOSES NET PRESENT VALUE $5.1 MIL.
SEAL BEACH BEACH LOSS ESTIMATED AT $1.8 MIL.
VALUE DECREASE: TRAFFIC,
PARKING, NOISE, CRIME, SAFETY CHILDREN.
WE RESPECTFULLY REQUEST THAT YOU REJECT THE CERTIFICATION OF THE EIR AND DENY THE CUP REQUEST. AT A MINIMUM, WE REQUEST YOU DIRECT STAFF TO ORDER
A NEW EIR CORRECTING THE MANY DEFICIENCIES WE HAVE POINTED OUT, INCLUDING DOING A PROPER TRAFFIC STUDY AS URGED BY THE COUNTY OF ORANGE.
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QUESTIONS FOR THE COUNCIL/DEVELOPER
DOES IT MATTER THAT NORTH SEAL BEACH RESIDENCE ARE FACED WITH EARLY MORNING AND LATE HOUR TRAFFIC AND NOISE?
MONTECITO IS A COLLECTOR STREET HAVE YOU CONSIDERED THE SAFETY OF CHILDREN,
THE ENCROACHMENT OF UBAN DECAY?
HAS THE CITY FORECASTED THE LONG TERM FINANCIAL EFFECT OF BUILDING THIS NEW HEALTH CLUB?
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