HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem D a z� - �/
SUBJECT: Adoption of Resolution for a Truly Regional Airport Plan
DATE: February 12, 2001
FROM: Mike Gordon, Mayor El Segundo
PRESENATION BY: Dennis Zane
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dennis Zane (310) 899-6767 or
Heather K. Somers (949) 646-0727
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
Consider adoption of the Resolution for a Truly Regional Airport Plan
BACKGROUND
The current debate over expanding airport capacity is driven by projections of the growth
in demand for air commerce in Southern California over the next twenty years. New
airport demand is largely a product of the projected 40% growth in population and an
even greater increase of 66% growth in employment in Southern California over that
period.
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More new people gainfully employed in Southern California means more people wanting
to fly. It also means more businesses engaged in commercial activity requiring
commercial passenger and cargo services while also creating more demand for goods
from other countries, particularly around the Pacific Rim. However, while growth in the
Southern California area is largely developing in the outlying areas, the present plans to
meet our future air commerce needs are being directed toward enlarging centrally located
LAX to accommodate these projected numbers.
The Coalition for a Truly Regional Airport Plan, led by Mayor Mike Gordon of El
Segundo, has succeeded in enlisting-the-support of over-100 Southern California Cities,
counties, transportation agencies, community groups and environmental and
environmental justice organizations to oppose the plan to centralize air commerce at LAX
and promote a regional solution to Southern California's rising aviation demand.
(Resolution, Attachment A)
ANALYSIS
As a rrreans to accommodate-this projected growth; lastmonth Los Angeles World
Airports released the draft environmental impact report for a proposed 12-billion-dollar
expansion-of Los Angeles International Airport. The expansion would accommodate up
1 C to 89 million of the 157 million passengers projected for the region by the year 2020. If
this proposed expansion is approved, it means that LAX and its surrounding communities
fir► will shoulder the burden of 55% of the region's air passengers as well as over 40% of the
projected cargo. Clearly, given the population growth in the outlying areas, as well as the
number of proposed and new airports coming on line, balance must be established in the
region so that all counties begin to serve their fair share of aviation services.
The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) has spearheaded a detailed
analysis of aviation demand to be included in the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) as
required by federal law. They have modeled a number of Aviation System Scenarios
(Attachment B) analyzing airport configurations which detail specific impacts on air
commerce if El Toro, Ontario, LAX and other airports are used at various capacities.
SCAG also evaluated the economic potential of a more regional approach to aviation in a
report by consulting firm CIC of San Diego,finding that a more regional approach rather
than a centralized approach to air commerce would yield essentially the same economic
benefit. a key policy unanimously adopted in the last Regional Transportation Plan
maintains that every county in the region should have both the right and the responsibility
to meet its own air-commerce needs. It is(CIC Economic impact study findings are
included in Executive Summary attachment C)
With the regional aggregate aviation demand remaining essentially the same, the regional
airport system advocated includes major connecting airports in the Inland Empire at
Ontario Airport, in Orange County at El Toro and in Los Angeles county at LAX. Other
airports in each of these three areas would serve the short and medium haul point-to-point
'4■,r markets much like John Wayne and Burbank do today or serve as primarily cargo airports
as March and George propose. This system provides each county with a"system that
meets its own needs and reflects the growth expected in the next tWenty years. It also
provides a balance in each community between population growth and aviation increases
while acknowledging the need for environmental justice for the communities around
LAX.
CONCLUSION
Proper utilization of the region's abundant airport resources yields essentially the same
economic benefits as expanding LAX. SCAG consultants at.CIC conclude,
"Given the relatively small differences in overall economic impacts, it would seem likely
that the planning decisions among the alternative regional aviation development scenarios
may be more strategically related to environmental and transportation congestion impacts
both air and ground rather that the future economic impacts."
Most of the eleven other commercial airports in Soutlhei , California are poised for
significant growth and development. Many operate in communities expected to
experience dramatic growth over the next two decades, growth that will ensure a strong
market for local airport services. These airports have built appropriate local management
capability and are marketing themselves to airline operators. All have existing runway
systems and can avoid the enormous expense and loss of RTP dollars that expanding
LAX would entail.
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With the findings that expanding LAX at a cost of 1Z to 15-billion dollars:
• Wil provide no extraordinary economic advantage for the greater region
• Does not address the growth factors in outlying areas while severely
overburdening communities immediately surrounding LAX
• Exacerbates safety risks both on.the ground and in the air with increased traffic to
both
• Deprives other areas of the region the opportunity to develop their own airports
and generate the economic base to sustain strong population and employment
growth
• Depletes a large share of the regional transportation dollars needed elsewhere in
the region
• Inhibits the regions ability to plan for aviation growth to the year 2020 and
beyond
The Coalition recommends adoption of the resolution(Attachment A) or a joint
resolution to support the collective call for a truly regional airport plan that constrains
growth at LAX and more equitably distributes future air traffic to all twelve of the
Itor existing and potential commercial airports available in the region.
Dennis Zane
Attachments: Exhibit A--Resolution
Exhibit B -Aviation System Scenarios
Exhibit C—Executive Summary
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M E Arric /i7?e T 8
AVIATION SYSTEM SCENARIOS SELECTED FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS
scenarios Description BUR El Toro John LAX LG8 March ONT ; PSP MAO Pt. 8B0 SCI locum High Torsi
Wayne Mugu Speed MAP
Rail
With all airports 9 20 22.20 7.00 94 20 2 80 0°D 15 30 1.70 0.10 • 1.80 1.80 0 10 No No 157 3'
RIP unconstra,ned,what i$
'fie demand in 20207
Cargo 0 070 1 332 D 026 : 3.944 •0060 1 301 124/'0,017 0 017 0.409 0.885 0.300 No No 8 902
Mai
Tce‘s
What effect does HSR .9 41$ 28 8' 9 40 70 0 300' 1 63 26 10 1 79 . 1 16 ; 3.03 1 31 ; C.46 Yes Yes 156.09
have on Ontario and
Inland Empire airports
2 ability to meet future
demand'
Cargo 0 068 1 699 0 024 . 2.590 ;0 063 0 993 2.088 0 014.0.115 0.212 0.771 0263 8 90
Tons
;What will the addition of. 9.41' 25 10 8.40' 78 01 3 00'. 1 27 25 58.2 24 1.40 0 00 1.46 0 61• Yes Yes 156.47
E,Toro have on Airport
System's(with HSR
8 ability to meat future
demand,
• Cargo 0.073 1 506 0 0251 2 974 0.061:0.982 2.046!0.018:0.120 0 000 0.801 0.291 a 900
M;
Tons
What effect would LAX 9 41" 0 00 8 40' 86.40 3 00' 5 49 33.80 3.01 1.22 000 288 1.20 Yes Yes 154 82
Master Ptah
rrnprovements have on
9 Airport System(without
II El Toro)with HSR7
Cargo 0 073 0.000 0 034 3 456 0 066 1 209'2 771:0.015•0 118; 0.000 :0 867,0292 9 9C,
cot,
Tons
II. Impact Analyses
A. Congestion/Ground Access
SCAG Staff conducted a preliminary, scenario-based analysis of airport ground
access. The ground access analysis estimated potential traffic impacts
associated with air passenger- and air cargo-related travel to and from airports
for each aviation system scenario defined for the SCAG region in the year 2020.
There are three key indicators in the traffic impact analysis: vehicle trips, vehicle
miles traveled (VMT), and vehicle hours traveled (VHT). A consultant. Advanced
Transportation Systems (ATS) provided SCAG with vehicle trip tables for air
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2
SOUTHERN CAt1VORNIA
ASSOCIATION of GOVERNMENTS
CIOINW
477,4e Iv/war C
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CIC Research, Inc., was retained by the Southern California Association of
Governments (SCAG) to prepare an impact analysis of the Southern California aviation industry
on the regional economy in the year 2020. For this study SCAG prepared a baseline 2020
aviation activity forecast (RTP-Medium) and four alternative forecast scenarios. The -RT-P-
Medium scenario is a forecast for 157 million annual air passengers and 8.9 million tons of air
cargo for the year 2020. This level of aviation activity represents a 92 percent increase in
passenger volume and a 242 percent increase in air cargo tonnage from 1998.
The passenger and cargo volumes for each aviation forecast scenario were then
allocated among the.regional airports based on transportation demand modeling and analysis
prepared by Advanced Transportation Systems. To quantify the resulting economic impacts of
the aviation forecast scenarios, CIC designed a regional input-output model with projections of
output and employment for the local economy in-the year 2020. The following are the major
findings of CIC's economic impact analysis.
STUDY FINDINGS
• For 1998, employment in the aviation transportation sector of'the six-county
SCAG region was estimated at 66,000 jobs (0.8%) of the region's total of
8,240,000 jobs.
• Total sales of the air transportation sector in 1998 were about $7.4 billion
(0.9%) of the region-wide total output of $801 billion.
• Based on regional projections of employment growth and productivity, the
six-county SCAG economy will be about-66% larger in terms of employment
than it is today, with about 13.750,000 total jobs in 2020.
• Total output of.the SCAG region will grow in real terms an estimated 117%
to about $1 .7 trillion in 2Q2.0 (measured in 1998 $s).
• Sales of the aviation industry or more accurately air transportation services
will reach $18.7 billion. representing about 1 .1% of the output of the regional
economy in 2020.
• Employment within the air transportation services sector wilt encompass_
about 110.000 jobs or about 0.8% of the total employment within the SCAG
region in the year 2020.
• For the purposes of this analysis, the economic impacts of. air transportation
services (i.e.. airports. passenger- carriers, and cargo carriers.) are measured
at three levels:
1 ) air transportation service providers (i.e., the -air transportation sector)
2) non-resident air traveler expenditures in the region; and
3) linkage to locally produced goods -and services that are exported by
air.
CC Research, Inc. Southern California Aviation Industry Impact Analysis pg. 1
IENESEA( e.,
cei -igeaCPA
21 NCS
CITY HALL • 211 EIGHTH STREET
SEAL BEACH, CALIFORNIA 90740-6379
(562)431-2527
eY/
March 7 , 2001
Mayor Mike Gordon
City of El Segundo
350 Main Street
El Segundo, California 90245
Dear Mayor Gordon,
Forwarded for your information is a certified copy of
Resolution Number 4878 entitled "A Resolution of the City
Council of the City of Seal Beach Calling For A Regional
Airport Plan for Southern California. " Resolution Number
4878 was unanimously adopted by the Seal Beach City Council
at their regular meeting of February 26th, 2001.
Ver truly yours,
O
J•a• e M. Yeo, 1 y Clerk
f ' y of Seal Beach
Attach.
cc: Southern California Association
of Governments
Senator Ross Johnson
Assemblyman Tom Harmon
City of Los Angeles
County of Los Angeles
County of Orange
County of San Bernardino
County of Riverside
County of Ventura