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HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem J • October 25, 1999 STAFF REPORT To: Honorable Mayor and Members of the City Council Attention: Keith R.Till,City Manager From: Lee Whittenberg,Director of Development Services Subject: RECEIPT OF ORANGE COUNTY COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS REPORT ON PERFORMANCE INDICATORS • SUMMARY OF REQUEST Receive and File Orange County Council of Governments (OCCOG) Draft Report on Performance Indicators and Staff Comment Letter. Instruct staff to forward to Planning Commission and Environmental Quality Control Board for information and to provide additional status reports as appropriate. DISCUSSION The Orange County Council of Governments(OCCOG)received funding from the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) to prepare a pilot report that would develop performance indicators for the county on a range of issues. OCCOG has prepared a draft report titled "Tracking Orange County—A Review of Social, Environmental, and Economic Performanc a Indicator?, that includes data for 15 general indicators, with accompanying discussion regarding the importance of tracking specific indicators and summaries that explain the appropriate graphs and charts. Also included is a discussion about what "performance indicators" and "benchmarks" are, and how such information can be used, or misused, in understanding and addressing issues of concern within the county. The report is intended to provide a"snapshot" of various conditions within Orange County, and track progress or decline in the areas measured. It is recognized that this report can and should be significantly expanded to include additional variables, but limited funding for this pilot project, and the uncertainty of additional future funding,limited the amount of information that could be researched and incorporated into this initial report. AGENDA ITEM C:1My Documents\OCCOC\Draft Performance Indicators.CC Staff Report.doc\LW110-18-99 Receive and File—OCCOG Draft Report re: "Tracking Orange County—A review of Social, Environmental and Economic Performance Indicators" October 25, 1999 OCCOG has requested any comments on the subject document by October 22, 1999 regarding the usefulness of the document as a beginning point for examining progress on issues important to Orange County, and identifying any additional subject areas to track in the future to provide a better understanding of the major issues within the County. Staff has provided a comment letter to OCCOG regarding these requests for comments, and that comment letter is provided as Attachment 2. Provided as Attachment 1 is the draft report, "Tracking Orange County A Review of Social, Environmental, and Economic Performance Indicators''. FISCAL IMPACT None. City staff currently participates on the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) and Executive Management Committee of OCCOG,where reviews of this document will continue. Staff will provide status reports as appropriate regarding this matter as appropriate. RECOMMENDATION Receive and File Orange County Council of Governments (OCCOG) Draft Report on Performance Indicators and Staff Comment Letter. Instruct staff to forward to Planning Commission and Environmental Quality Control Board for information and to provide additional status reports as appropriate. NOTED AND APPROVED /6 4:/\)1. Wlvttenberg Keith R. Till Director of Development Services/— ervi /ZAZ .,,,):,:el City Manager ATTACHMENTS: (2) Attachment 1: Draft "Tracking Orange County — A Review of Social, Environmental, and Economic Performance Indicators", Orange County Council of Governments, November 1999 Draft Performance Indic ators.CC Staff Report 2 Receive and File—OCCOG Draft Report re: "Tracking Orange County—A review of Social, Environmental and Economic Performance Indicators" October 25, 1999 Attachment 2: Staff Comment Letter re: Draft "Tracking Orange County— A Review of Social, Environmental, and Economic Performance Indicators", Orange County Council of Governments,November 1999 Draft Performance Indicators.CC Staff Report 3 , Receive and File—OCCOG Draft Report re: "Tracking Orange County—A review of Social, Environmental and Economic Performance Indicators" October 25, 1999 ATTACHMENT 1 DRAFT "TRACKING ORANGE COUNTY - A REVIEW OF SOCIAL, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE INDICATORS", ORANGE COUNTY COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS, NOVEMBER 1999 Draft Performance Indicators.CC Staff Report 4 D TRACKING ORANGE COUNTY A Review of Social, Environmental, and Economic Performance Indicators November1999 \ / Pt t•••4 ƒ` d / - «• : / , DRAFT INTRODUCTION This is the first of what is hoped will be an annual report measuring a range of social, economic, and environmental indicators for Orange County. The 798 square mile region comprises 32 cities, and is home to nearly 2.6 million people. Generally situated south of Los Angeles, Orange County extends north to the cities of La Habra and Brea, east to the city of Mission Viejo, west to the cities of Los Alamitos and Seal Beach, and south to the city of San Clemente. The county's geographically central location in Southern California, its proximity to metropolitan Los Angeles, regional rail, and air facilities makes it an integral component in the overall success of the Southern California economy. Its population base of 2.6 million and projected future growth, changing demographic, ethnic, and economic mix and status, coupled with its mostly developed urbanisuburban landscape will provide significant opportunities and challenges for its future sustainability and success. Although the development of a measuring tool such as this report is an important first step toward assessing the relative socioeconomic, economic, and environmental status of Orange County, it is but one piece;of a potentially broader program of goal-setting and achievement. Basically, this report serves only as an initial report for the county in selected areas. It makes no grand pronouncements of what the county can or should be, and offers no objectives or strategies toward meeting such objectives. Those types of discussions among decision-makers, constituents, business leaders and other affected interests can occur around the data presented here, and these data can provide a yardstick to measure decisions as they are made by public and private entities. As such, this report is intended to be an initial tool to promote discussion of specific trends taking place in the county. Recognizing the pros and cons of performance indicators, as discussed in the next section, the reader is invited to reflect upon the report's contents to gauge.whether or not the selected trends presented are those that should be measured or if other indices are preferred, whether they are consistent with the jurisdictional and/or subregional goals and community visions. If goals are absent, or disturbing trends are identified through this initial report or future iterations, decision-makers can initiate discussions about whether strategies can and should be developed and implemented throughout the county to address issues and improve conditions. 1 D 1 What are indicators and benchmarks? Recognizing that there are potentially an infinite number of trends and activities that can be measured and tracked for a report such as this, the 30 indicators included in this initial report are intended to provide the reader a basic "snapshot" of Orange County on a range of social, economic, and environmental fronts. Categories and individual components for future measurement can and should be added or deleted based on what the community at large sees as the area's most important issues in the future. Indicators are bits of information that highlight what is happening in a large system. They provide a glimpse of the "big picture." They tell us which direction a critical aspect of where a community, economy, or environment is going; forward or backward, increasing or decreasing, improving or deteriorating, or staying the same. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average provides an indication of the relative health of the stock market. It does not include every stock, but instead covers a representative sample. Trends in the samples are believed to be closely matched to trends in the stock market as a whole. If we pay close attention to indicators we can also identify strategies to improve community standing and the quality of life. If we ignore them, we turn our backs from important data that can serve as a community's warning system. The Sustainable Seattle Project states the following about indicators: Indicators are like the gauges and dials of an aircraft instrument panel. By designing them carefully, watching them closely, and interpreting them wisely, we know the status of our flight and can make good decisions about where to go. Without indicators, we're just 'flying by the seat of our pants. " Good indicators, according to a benchmark project conducted in Oregon, include the following components: • They are bellwether tests of sustainability: They reflect something basic and fundamental to the long- term social cultural, economic, environmental or social health of a community over generations. • They are accepted by the community: They are understood to be a valid sign of sustainability (or symptom of distress). • They are attractive tolocal media: The press publicizes them and uses them to monitor and analyze community trends. • They are statistically measurable: Data exists that is relevant to this geographic area, and preferably comparable to other cities, counties or communities. If data are not readily available, a practical method of data collection or measurement exists or can be created. • They are logically or scientifically defensible: Understandable rationales exist for using the specific indicator and for drawing general conclusions from it. "Good" indicators can either be focused or broad in their scope, objective or subjective. As long as they are consistently measured and tracked over a period of time, they provide perspective and can indicate positive or negative trends. For example, tracking the number of teenage pregnancies over a five or ten- year period provides an objective indicator of a focused issue. Tracking residents' "quality of life" supplies a broad, subjective indicator that, while interesting, requires more detailed analysis (perhaps of one or more objective indicators) in order to understand the nature of the responses. 2 • Use-And Misuse- Of Indicators Regardless of the number of efforts that have been undertaken using performance indicators to measure and assess the relative social, environmental and economic health of communities, the use of benchmarking and performance indicators often provide a skewed measure of an area's well-being. As an example, one common application of performance indicators is the media-popular"best places to live" listings, where various communities are scored according to a number of selected criteria, ranging from types of and occurrences of various crimes to price of housing to SAT scores. Communities are then ranked form "best"to "worst" based on criteria selected and method of measurement. The rankings provide a sort of psychological boost to the highly ranked communities; remaining areas usually spend time defending their locales, attacking the surveys, and suggesting that other data be used for future efforts. This example is demonstrative of one of the dilemmas related to the use of performance indicators and benchmark studies. While performance indicators usually provide objective measurements to index individual categories, some, such as "quality of life" and "standard of living" (which are common benchmarks) are more subjective and perceptual. Thus, while it may not be mutually exclusive to use • objective indices to measure the subjective, the potential for a disconnect between the indicators and objectives is obvious. The trouble with performance indicators is usually not the indicators themselves, but their application in attempting to gauge a subjective end, that being the overall "quality of life" of a given place or region. Whether objective measurements can be used to accurately assess the subjective is difficult to discern, and current events might lead people to make conclusions on matters that cannot be supported by longer-term data. For example, a recent crime uncharacteristic of those normally associated with a particular neighborhood might lead that neighborhood's residents to conclude -for the time being-that a crime problem exists, when in fact longer-term statistics indicate otherwise. And decision-makers, reacting to public outcry, might allocate funds for programs that may not be necessary. Thus, while indictors can provide objective measurements which can be followed over time and used to gauge progress toward a goal, people, government agencies and businesses often operate in and make decisions within a more reactive, subjective and perceptual environment. In government, elected officials operating under term limits and the"we want results now" nature of constituents, often feel pressured to make decisions that offer-short-term fixes at the expense of longer-term goals and objectives. The 1996 Orange County-Annual Survey, conducted by the University of California Irvine, provides an additional example of the temporal nature of quality of life issues perceived by the public. In 1995, the public's number one policy problem in Orange County was the financial crisis that stemmed by the county's filing for bankruptcy at the end of 1994. By 1996, the financial crisis has fallen into the background among issues perceived as a major concern, despite the fact the county at that time had yet to emerge from bankruptcy. Whether those polled had in fact determined that the fiscal crisis was of no or only tangential impact, or whether the decline in media coverage, or both, impacted their feelings about the issue is not clear. 3 . 40,07. Benchmark Sequencing and Issues to Consider A typical benchmark sequence (i.e., setting and going from a subjective vision to the final, objective measurement of performance) might be as follows: 1. Vision: of'where one is headed: "The right of all citizens to physical, mental and emotional well-being" 2. Goal to implement the vision: "Value children and help them to achieve their full-potential" 3. Develop Strategic Benchmarks Reduce rate of teen pregnancy; set targets. 4. Identify Comparative Indicators Teen pregnancy rate in other cities and counties. 5. Develop Performance/Outcome,Measures Reduce teen pregnancy rate at high school clinic. The transition from subjective to objective occurs in this sequence between Steps 2 and 3, with Steps 4 and 5 providing the objective data(performance indicators) needed to measure progress toward the focused goal, identified in Step 3. Step 1 and 2 are very broad and subjective statements that, realistically, offer little relation to the benchmarks and indicators listed in Steps 3-5. Unfortunately, many studies and planning documents are heavy on lofty and subjective goals but provide no explanation of what the goals really mean, much less how they can be measured. Although there is strong support for benchmarking in many cities and regions across the country, there is also considerable skepticism and it is important to consider concerns when proceeding with such endeavors. Major issues for Orange County to consider(related to this first report and as a pre-cursor for future report expansion) include the following: • Measuring outcomes is difficult: Some government activities- for example, efforts aimed at economic development- defy precise gauging or may be of a very long-term nature. Even when it is possible, measurement can involve extensive data gathering and require significant expenditure of staff and financial resources. If-the OCCOG (or other entity in Orange County) desires to pursue the establishment of a benchmarking and performance indicators program, it should strive to do so in a cost-effective manner, where financial resources are linked to and can support whatever long-term level of commitment is determined. • Establishing cause and effect can be difficult: While developing and tracking performance indicators can be, from a technical standpoint, a fairly easy task, the underlying problem for measurers is that often there is no way of understanding the precise relationship between'a governmental intervention strategy and its practical impact. Take, for example, a transportation performance indicator that relates • to the safety and security of the transportation system. The method by which the objective (in this case, a safe transportation network) is assessed might include performance indicators that track fatalities per million passenger miles and injury accidents. However, there will be no way of concluding an improvement or worsening.of safety is the result of work of the California Highway Patrol, highway engineering, driver safety programs, driver characteristics, reduced travel speeds due to extreme congestion, or other factors. 4 • Assessing whether jurisdictions have any control over the area being tracked or benchmarked: One goal in the state of Minnesota is to increase the number of songbirds in the state. However, many studies point to the loss of habitat in tropical regions as the cause of the decline in species diversity in North America. The difficulties related to how local, regional or state governments can address this matter are obvious. This does not mean that Orange County should only develop and track indicators under its direct control, because many issues of importance to the county might be related to actions taken at the regional, state, and federal levels. In theses cases, the indicators should serve Orange County leaders with baseline information for purposes of developing strategies for education, consensus building and lobbying at these levels for programs that will, in time, benefit the subregion. • "Cooking" the numbers to achieve a desired objective: Data can always be presented or manipulated to demonstrate the success or failure of a program. Additionally, it is usually preferable to portray data that provides positive information rather than negative trends about a place or region. However, an unbalanced presentation of performance indicators can lead to commensurate uninformed perspectives of the issue being tracked; any actions taken to address a perceived issue may in fact be unnecessary or.poorly focused. For example, reports of Orange County's booming economy and employment growth(800,000 new jobs by 2020) are somewhat tempered when recent trends showing that up to 50% of new Orange County jobs pay less than$10.00 per hour are considered. • Potential for`Benchmarkitis": It is important to consider what level of long-term commitment it can make to this effort before continuing. The state of Oregon's Benchmark Project constituted a five-year effort. Although widely acclaimed(praised by the Clinton administration and often imitated around the nation) for its potential to set targets for the state and then measure the government's progress, the program ballooned to 272 benchmarks, many which were impractical, unmeasurable or frivolous. While a number of the Oregon benchmarks (cutting air and water pollution, lowering rates of teen pregnancy and increasing the percentage of child immunizations) are admirable, several goals (e.g., "By 2010, 95% of Oregonians will drink alcohol only in moderation") are subject to skepticism. State officials have recently acknowledged this problem, and a benchmark reduction effort is now underway to cut back to approximately 100 benchmarks. 5 eR4p, MOVING AHEAD: TRACKING AND UNDERSTANDING CONDITIONS It is hoped that the result of this initial indicator effort for Orange County will help increase understanding among decision-makers and the public about how the region is doing. While future efforts can continue to track and present data such as that contained in this report as well as for other indicators. Orange County may choose to evolve this effort further, as previously discussed, to track progress toward specific goals and identify critical issues that need to be addressed. In order to achieve such objectives it will be necessary to more clearly define the focus of this effort, and develop a process or understanding regarding how conditions can be consistently tracked overtime. A number of factors should be considered before proceeding. Factor No. 1: Acknowledge the gap between indicators, responsibilities and implementation of strategies Discussion: OCCOG, as an advisory body to its member agencies, should stress that its role in the development of benchmarks and performance indicators is focused on provision of information and outreach, rather than implementation. Others in and outside of the region -both private and public sector interests alike- are largely responsible for"making things happen", i.e., developing and implementing programs or efforts to • address identified areas of concern. OCCOG, or any public or private entity for that matter, is not directly responsible for"raising the standard of living."However, by developing easy-to-use and understandable performance indicators, OCCOG can provide a valuable service of increasing community understanding of issues and encourage the development of strategies that might address identified problem areas. For example, the issue of improving air quality in Southern California is usually viewed from under a public health umbrella, with commensurate assignment of responsibility for developing air quality strategies directed to public agencies, such as the South Coast Air Quality Management District. However, air quality problems intimate a number of other things about community livability, namely whether roads are congested, whether communities are designed to provide alternatives to automobiles, and whether airsheds have capacity to accommodate economic growth. Poor air quality can increase health care costs, and pollutants in the air provide nuclei upon which condensation can occur, eventually finding their way from the air to the land and water via precipitation. Poor air quality can also lead to restrictions on economic development, not to mention that the typical response of the casual observers to Southern California's smoggy skies does little to promote the desirability of the region to potential employers and residents. Recommendation: OCCOG should, in consultation with affected and interested parties, encourage and develop innovative private and public education and outreach programs to increase awareness of indicators presented for the county and Southern California, and encourage private-public partnerships to initiate and expand upon efforts that can achieve goals and objectives that may be developed. 6 • Factor No. 2: Avoid Benchmarkidis; start slowly and expand as appropriate Discussion: Using the Oregon Benchmark project in which approximately 270 indicators were developed as an example of what some see as an overly ambitious effort, Orange County should develop and focus on a few indicators that can be widely agreed to as being critical, gaining credibility for their use before deciding to expand the nature and scope of the project. Recommendation: Develop initial "critical indicators", which may or may not include those presented in this report, and commit to a review process where expansion will draw from additional input and lessons learned from prior benchmarking efforts. Factor No. 3: Commit to the effort over the long-term Discussion: It is important to commit staff and fiscal resources to the long-term in order for any indicator/benchmark effort to succeed. Whether focused on a limited effort, as is recommended here for the short-term, or for an expanded project over the long-term, it is important that Orange County leaders consider prioritizing in its annual budget funds to fully accomplish whatever benchmarking work program is desired. Recommendation: Seek direction from Orange County leaders regarding a future commitment to benchmarking, and establish a short- and long-term work program as appropriate. Factor No. 4: Seek involvement from implementation entities Recommendation: Agencies responsible for implementation should be fully consulted to review, comment, and participate in developing indicators and potential future benchmarks. Factor No. 5: Have something to compare progress against Discussion: An intriguing -but often missing- component of benchmark studies is that they often provide no • comparisons to similar areas. Comparability should be viewed as an important component of future Orange County efforts. Progress made in the Orange County region should be gauged against the success rates of comparable or"competing" regions, as trends depicting improvement in Orange County might actually be at rates below the levels of improvement being achieved elsewhere, and thus should not be viewed as positively as they would when viewed alone. Recommendation: Consider whether benchmark/indicator efforts would benefit from also monitoring similar trends in other selected metropolitan areas. 1 Factor No. 6: Develop indicators that are also benchmarks Discussion: Orange County should strive to develop goals (benchmarks) where direct progress can be tracked through the monitoring of historical data(indicators). Having benchmarks and indicators be the same makes it easier to measure progress. For example, a benchmark could be to add 5 golf courses in the region by the year 2010; direct indicators would simply be the number of new courses added each year towards the 2010 date. Recommendation: Focus on developing benchmarks that can be directly measured by indicators. • • 8 GENERAL FINDINGS For the most part, the trends as measured for the Orange County region in this report are improving. The unemployment rate is at its lowest point in seven years. Orange County has one of the lowest poverty rates.in the nation, and adult residents of the county are generally well educated. The following is a summary of what was found: Population and Growth The population has increased and is expected to continue expanding. It is expected to exceed 2.8 million next year and reach 3,244,607 by 2020. Employment The total employment has increased by 3.9 percent since 1991. It is expected to continue increasing in the next millennium. Current employment in the region is 1,364,200 and is projected at 2,116,559 by 2020. Housing The median home value in Orange County is $264,482. Despite the relatively high cost of housing, a majority of homes in Orange County are owner occupied. Between 1990 and 1997, 70,000 units have been added to the county's housing stock. However,the supply of housing is not keeping pace with the county's growing population. Housing Construction Residential building declined slightly at the beginning of the 1990's, but has steadily increased throughout the last few years. Residential valuation has swelled recently by 30 percent between 1996-98. The majority of new building permits were for single-family residences. Unemployment Orange County has some of the lowest unemployment rates in California and in the entire nation. The unemployment rate had decreased 18.9 percent from 1991 to 1997. Poverty 8.5 percent of Orange County residents lived below the poverty level in 1990. This is below the state rate of an estimated 12 percent in 1990. Public Safety The per capita rate of crimes fell for the seventh year in a row, mirroring the state and nationwide trend. The 1997 FBI crime rate was the lowest in sixteen years. Family Well Being The number and rate of reported child abuse incidences in the county has doubled in the past seven years. The number of elder abuse reports has also increased dramatically since 1990. High School Graduation • The high school graduation rate for Orange County is above average statewide rates. 9 College Education of Orange County residents In total, 61.1 percent of the population 25 years or older had attended or completed a college program. SAT and ACT Test Scores Orange County test scores remain above the nationwide criteria and are the highest in the six county SCAG region. Retail Sales Taxable sales are the highest in ten years. A 20 percent increase in retail sales occurred from 1995 to 1998. Air Quality The air in Orange County has been cleaner throughout the 1990's than in previous decades. The worst air quality remains in the county's inland cities. Water Resources As part of an arid geographic area, Orange County faces the unique challenge of how to continue to provide water for a growing population in the years to come. Waste The amount of waste sent to landfills has increased 42 percent since 1995, despite recycling and diversion efforts by the Integrated Waste Management Act of 1989. Land Use The county has lost 18 percent of its vacant land since 1972. A majority of that land has been converted to residential use. Residential land use has increased 30 percent from 1972 to 1990. Health Care Access to service, particularly health care, limits the treatment of diseases and preventive illnesses. Many residents, the majority which are children, can not afford health care, and therefore are not getting adequate care. • • • • 10 • COMMUNITY INDICATOR: POPULATION Measures population change throughout Orange County from 1990 to 1998. Population 1990 - 1998 Additionally, population trends are Orange County estimated to 2020 and age distribution for 2,800,000 the county is shown. 2,700,000 Why, Is It Important? Population statistics represent individuals o 2,600,000 who reside in Orange County. Building a a community that fully serves its residents o 2,500,000 requires reasonable expectations about future needs and levels of demand. 2 2,400,000 Changing patterns and rates of population over time provides a solid basis to plan z 2,300,000 111111111 for housing, transit,jobs, public services and a sustainable environment. Careful 2,200,000 I planning will assist in accommodating 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 population growth in the county. Year How Are We Doing? • Orange County's 1998 population was 2,722,300. • Although Orange County has lost its 1980's status as the fastest growing county in the United States, it continues to be a major growth area. • Since the 1990 Census, Orange County's population grew by nearly 312,000 persons. This is an addition of 39,000 persons annually or a 1.6 percent annual increase. • Like California, Orange County's population is relatively young when compared to the rest of the nation. The median age is 32.2 years in Age Distribution In Orange County Orange County and 34 years for the 600,000 United States. - 500,000 — - i■ 1980,-.- 19 19901 y 400,000 — -- ---- -- C O a. 300,000 — 3 - O - F' 200,000 -- — .. if= 100,000 Ib t4- 7.' _- _.. _.. 0-5 0-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 24-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+ Age lI - ;That Is The Trend? The population of the region is expected to reach and surpass three million by the year 2005. Reaching 3,244,607 by 2020. This is an addition of 522,316 people, which is equivalent to adding five cities the size of Costa Mesa during the next twenty years. Between 1990 and 1997, 85 percent of Orange County's population growth was due to natural increase (more births than deaths) and 15 percent was due to in- migration. Most of the county's in-migration can be attributed to immigration rather than domestic migration. As has characterized Orange County's growth in recent years, natural increase will account for the majority of the county's future growth. Population 1990 - 2020 - Orange County 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 a • E2,000,000 z 1,500,000 1,000,000 - 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year 12 9 COMMUNITY INDICATOR: PUBLIC SAFETY Shown here are the overall number of crimes reported by the FBI per 100,000 residents in Orange County for the years 1982 - 1997. FBI crimes include homicide, robbery, forcible rape, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. Why Is It Important? Crime is a reflection of the basic social and economic health of a community. Crime and the perception of crime are often directly linked to residents' feelings of safety and security. Personal safety is crucial for maintaining a strong sense of community, a high quality of life, and healthy families. High crime rates can force community leaders to direct resources to law enforcement and detention programs, while depleting the human and financial resources of governments that might otherwise go for other important programs. How Are We Doing? • According to the data from the FBI Crime Index, the number of crimes per 100,000 residents in Orange County fell for the seventh year in a row. • There was a 42 percent decrease in crime between 1990 and 1997. The 1997 figure, 3,485 reported crimes, is the lowest number in sixteen years. • This decrease is consistent with the state and nationwide trend. FBI Crime Index Crimes Per 100,000 Persons* 7000 - 6000 5000 -- N 61 ✓ 4000 - o - a 3000 -- E Z 2000 — • 1000 — 0 I 1 I 4 I ! ! I I ! I I 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 *FBI crimes include homicide, robbery, forcible rape, aggravated Year assault, burglary, larceny-theft, and motor whicle theft. 13 • Arbter COMMUNITY INDICATOR: LIVING IN POVERTY Measures individuals who live below the poverty line. The U.S. Census Bureau uses a set of money income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to detect who is poor. If a family's total income is less than that family's threshold, than that family and every individual in it is considered poor. For example, the federal poverty is set at S 16,450 per year for a family of four. Why Is It Important? Those living in poverty are unable to develop Percent of Persons Below and fulfill their potential because their Poverty Level nutrition, health care, and educational needs 14.0% are insufficiently met. Social needs multiply o 12.0% 2oio in areas of concentrated poverty and the costs a of increased social services impose a heavy ;°, 10°��° burden on an area's competitive position. The m s.o�ia number of children living in poverty is an 6.0% indicator of future costs society will incur in a 4.0% social services and lost economic potential. 2.0% - a 0.0% How Are We Doing? 1970 1980 1990 1993 • The number and proportion of persons Year below the poverty line has increased over time in Orange County. Between 1970 and 1993, the rate nearly doubled from 6.5 to 12.6 percent. • In 1990, over 200,000 persons in Orange County fell below the poverty level. Yet the poverty rate for Orange County in 1990, at 8.5 percent, was lower than the Los Angeles County poverty rate of 15.07 percent. The number of people living in poverty in the entire state of California was below 13 percent in- 1990. • Hispanics recorded the highest poverty rates in Orange County in 1990 at 18.6 percent, followed by Asian/Pacific Islanders at 12.9 percent, blacks at 9.7 percent, and whites at 6.7 percent. • Poverty has been increasing in Orange Poverty Rate by Ethnicity 1990 County, particularly among those under 18Orange County years old. In 1993, the rate for children in 18 0 poverty was 19 percent a 16% in Orange County. In o 14% comparison, over one- m 12% third of all children in Los Angeles County a 6% were considered to be = 4°% living in poverty in 2Au. 0% 1993 and over one- Total White Black American Asian/Pacific Hispanic Other fourth of all children in Indian& Islander California in 1993 Eskimo lived in poverty. 14 COMMUNITY INDICATOR: HOUSING TRENDS The following were measured: the number of housing units in Orange County and current projected housing estimates, the housing price index, overcrowding and housing density, housing tenure by ethnicity in Orange County, and housing cost as a percent of income. Why Is It Important? _ Residential construction is essential to Total Housing Units 1990 - 1998 accommodate for the projected population Orange County growth in Orange County. A lack of affordable housing also prohibits the ability of 960,000 young people to remain in the region after they enter the workforce and makes it 940,000 difficult for employers to recruit qualified workers. Thus, a job-housing imbalance can 920,000 occur. Higher housing costs often force ; o 900.000 people to live in adjacent communities, where I • they have to commute ling distances to work. Z 880,000 A lack of affordable housing can also push i ! low-income people below the poverty line or 860,000 cause overcrowding of housing units. In addition, housing affordability may affect the I 840,000 , 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 elderly who rely on a fixed income. Year Existing homeowners benefit from an increase in home values because their equity rises as well. Further more, as home values rise, property taxes also increase, benefiting schools and municipalities. How Are We Doing? • Between 1990 and 1997, approximately 70,000 units have been added to Orange County's stock of housing units, representing an overall increase of 6.9 percent. • In 1998, 945,034 housing units existed in Orange County, indicating a 1.1 percent change from 935,097 units in 1997-_ • In 1998, the average price of Orange County homes was $264,482. • • 15 /0 • The number and rate of overcrowded housing units has been steadily increasing. 7.2 percent of the households were overcrowded (more than 1.51 persons per room) in Overcrowded Housing 1970 - 1990 1990, compared to 2.6 percent in 1980. 1.5+ persons per room • There is considerable variation in 8.00%- housing unit population density by racial6.00% V. and ethnic group. The 1990 density for o o m 4.00 °r° Whites was 2.47 persons per unit, c� z.00r° I o.00r° followed by Blacks at 2.97, Asians at 1970 1980 1990 2.94 and Hispanics at 4.72. Year • A majority of the homes in Orange - --- County are owner-occupied. • What Is The Trend? The large growth in Orange County's population -- __ appears to be outpacing the growth of housing. Persons Per Dwelling Unit The number of housing units in Orange County is expected to exceed 1 million by 2005 N 4 and reach 1,154,528 by 2020. This demand a 3 ; in housing units will also likely lead to a 7 0 i ±, . continued rise in housing costs. The increase Z 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1997 1998 in population density per housing unit will Year continue well into the 21st century and is _ projected to reach a high of 2.89 (for all ethnic groups combined)by 2000, holding through 2005 before any declines are expected. Total Housing Units 1990-2020 Orange County 1,400,000 1,200,000 111111111 1,000,000 A • D 800,000 46 d 1117. 1 600,000 z 400,000 200,000 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year 16 , 40 COMMUNITY INDICATOR: HOUSING CONSTRUCTION The report focuses on two trends: the number and type of residential building permits let in Orange County, and residential permit valuation. Why Is It Important? - - - - - - Housing construction is significantly Residential Building Permits Orange County linked to housing projections and 30,000 population growth. It is important to monitor whether new housing 25,000 i�Total construction is keeping pace with Single projected growth so that housing is 1--.--Multiple readily available to the increasing .E 20•000 -"" population. Housing construction is I a + • also an important source of + 0 1s.000 • employment and corporate profit in the 1 i • region. Additionally, the availability of 1 Z 10000 - • + i reasonably priced housing is one of the • • + key determinants of the region's 5°9I. t- + i • attractiveness and competitiveness. ! I I • How Are We Doing? 0 r- r c § R W@ i E l W 1 1 § § V i Volr • Residential building, measured by Year new building permits issued, has - - surged upward since 1992. The total number of permits issued in 1998 was 10,043 compared to only 5,957 new permits in 1992. • Since 1991, the majority of residential permits have been for the construction of single-family dwelling units. • The number of permits for single family Total Residential Valuation residences almost doubled between 1993 and 1998. 1980 -1997 Orange County • The number of multiple family building permits 2500 000 decreased from 4,877-in 1994 to 2,245 the following year. Multiple unit permits increased again in 1998 to 2,735. 2,000,000 — • The total 1998 housing permit valuation (the approximate costs of construction) is the o 1,500,000 — /V , highest since 1989. There was a significant 30 H percent increase in valuations between 1996 ° 1,000,000 - and 1998 in Orange County reaching N $1,640,000 million in 1998. 500,000 — I 0 , i I 1 1 1 1 I . 1980 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 � Year 17 What Is The Trend? Based on current projections for population and employment, it appears that the amount of housing being constructed in Orange County falls short of what is needed to accommodate this future growth. On the average, 9,206 residential building permits have been issued each year since 1990. 209,494 dwelling units are planned to be constructed during the next 20 years. If housing in Orange County is unavailable and/or unaffordable, many people will continue to look for housing in adjacent counties, making long commutes into Orange County to work and forcing significant resources to be expended on transportation infrastructure to support job/housing imbalances. 18 COMMUNITY INDICATOR: EMPLOYMENT TRENDS The employment growth rate in Orange County is measured. The 1994 labor market estimates by industry is shown, and employment is projected to the year 2020. Why Is It Important? — — Diversity of employment is Employment Growth 1990 - 2020 important to a region. When a I Orange County community is dependent on only a i 2,500,000 few large industries or companies, it becomes vulnerable to sudden changes in the market. In order to 2,000,000 develop a strong economic base, it is most desired to have numerous 2 1,500,000 medium and small sized businesses, widely distributed 1,040,000 among several industries. It is also vital for a region to have types of businesses with high growth I 500,000 potential and benefits. For example, many jobs in the retail o and service sectors are low paying, 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 less secure, and offer few or no Year benefits. -- -=- - --I How Are We Doing? • The number of employed residents increased by 141,100 or more than 4 percent between 1991 and 1998. • The total number of employees in Orange County was 1,223,100 in 1990 and has increased steadily to 1,364,200 in 1998. — • The service sector is the largest Components of Orange County employment sector in Orange Employment County, accounting for over 30 percent of the jobs. This is followed by the trade sector at 25 percent, 7°i° 4% which consists of both wholesale and retail trade. Almost two-thirds 57° 30% ■Services of the trade-sector jobs are in retail ❑Trade employment. Manufacturing 11% • i Manufacturing accounts for 18 percent of the total ❑Government industry, followed government, ■Construction I finance, insurance,,real estate and ■Real Estate ; construction. There is also a fairly ®Other large self-employed market 18% (approximately 10 percent). 25% 19 /1Q!,41.7. • There are several major employers in Orange County. The largest employer is Boeing, employing over 15,700 residents. Disneyland Park and Hotel and the University of California Irvine both employ over 10,000 residents. • Gfhat Is The Trend? Over the next five years, an additional 165,000 jobs are expected to be added to the county's employment base.Increases are expected in each of the employment sectors, with the largest job growth projected to occur in the service and trade sectors. The total employment for the entire county is expected to reach 2.1 million in the year 2020. Since employment levels and poverty levels are both projected to increase, this suggests a greater number of working poor. • • • 20 COMMUNITY TREND: THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Measures the percent of the labor force in Orange County that is unemployed. The labor force is defined as the number of residents in the region who want to work and are currently seeking employment. The labor force does not include individuals who are homeless, transient, or institutionalized. Why Is This Important? The extent to which the labor force in the region is employed is directly linked to an important element of the quality of life. The unemployment rate is a measure of the current loss of productive potential in the region. While there will always be some unemployment, it is generally agreed that economic growth utilizing existing labor resources in a community is preferable. A reduction in the unemployment rate raises both production and employment in the regrion, stimulating income growth among its residents. Being jobless brings a lot of emotional and financial stress to individuals and families. High unemployment in a region can induce crime, and the need for additional social service expenditures among local governments. How Are We Doing? • Unemployment for Orange County was at the lowest rate of the decade in 1998 with a 3.1 percent rate. • The number of unemployed residents in Orange County averaged 45,200 during 1997, down from 55,700 in 1996. Mid-year figures for 1998 indicated that 44,500 residents were unemployed. • Orange County's unemployment rate has consistently registered below the state and the nation; the state unemployment rate averaged 6.3 percent for 1997 while the United States unemployment rate averaged 4.9 percent for the year. What Is The Trend? The unemployment rate in Orange County has remained below both the state and national averages for the past 10 years and this trend is expected to continue in the future. Unemployment Rate 1991-1997 Orange County • - 8.0 7.0 - 6.0 - 0/) a 5.0 . 4.0 - 3.0 - m C 2.0 - 1.0 - 0.0 ! t 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Year 21 COMMUNITY INDICATOR: TAXABLE SALES Measures the number of retail sales and taxable transactions per year in Orange County. Retail sales includes sales that occur through retail outlets. Taxable transactions include both retail and non-retail sales. Why Is It Important? Changes in taxable sales are a measure of changes in local government revenues and changes in the economic health of the consumer sector. They are one of the major revenue generators for local and state governments. How Are We Doing? • A 20 percent increase in taxable sales occurred from $28,276,259 in 1994 to $37,095,966 in 1998. • In 1998, the total gross county product(GCP) for Orange County was $100.1 billion. An increase of 12 percent from the 1997 GCP. Taxable Transactions, 1994-1998 Orange County $38,000,000 $36,000,000 - E $34,aoo,000 0 0 0 0 $32,000,000 - C co y O• $30,000,000 - H $28,000,000 — $26,000,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Year 22 4,041::ty. COMMtiNITY INDICATOR: EDUCATION Measures the percentage of the adult population 25 years and older who have completed public high school, and the percentage of those who have less than a high school education in Orange County. The percentage of adult 25 years and older who have pursued further academic studies at a college level is also measured. In addition, the Orange County K-12 enrollment rate by ethnicity is discussed. ------------------------------- ---- ------ The ACT and SAT test I SAT & ACT Tests scores for 1998 in Orange g I Percent of Students Meeting State Performance Criteria County are shown. The SAT 30% (Scholastic Aptitude Test) •1993 and the ACT (American ' II 311997 25% College Test) are ----.-a ■ 998 administered to high school :'__ students for admission into a 20% .TA = ekt How Are We Doing? • In total, 61.1 percent of the population 25 years and older had attended or completed a college program • Orange County's population is generally well-educated. In 1990, 24.4 percent of the population 25 years or older had some — — - ___.._..-__.-_--------------___--- -_---- college or a four year degree, K-12 Enrollment by Ethnicity 8.8 percent hada two year Orange County degree, and 18.7 percent had j 60% a bachelor's degree. Another 9.1 percent had attended or 50% completed a graduate program. • I a 40% _ •1990 • Of the population 25 years of a I ®1997 age and older, 18.8 percent 9 30% - I • had not completed high school. i 20% • The overall level of high a • _ school dropouts in both 10% Orange County and the State - • of California has been o% ' White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific declining. The reported Islander dropout rate for Orange __ County has been consistently below the statewide level. • Between 1990 and 1997, K-12 enrollment in public schools has increased by 22.7 percent. Enrollment in grades 7-8 has been the most rapid at 26.1 percent, followed by K-6 at 24.9 percent and 9-12 at 17.3 percent. • The K-12 population has become more racially and ethnically diverse. In 1990, 53.4 percent of the K- 12 students were white, 32 percent Hispanic, 13.4 percent were Asian/Pacific Islander, and 2.1 percent were Black. In 1997, 44.5 percent of K-12 students were White, 39.8 percent were Hispanic, 13.9 were Asian/Pacific Islander, and 2.2 percent were Black. • Data on Orange County high school graduates indicate that approximately one-fourth of all students taking the SAT and ACT exams have consistently'met the nationwide criteria. Nationwide criteria for SAT test scores are a score of 1000 or better on the total test and a score of 21 or better on the composite ACT tests. • In 1998, Orange County had the highest percentage in the six county Southern California Association of Governments(SCAG) region of students meeting the nationwide criteria. Average total SAT scores for public schools in Orange County was 1069 according to 1998 tests. • What Is The Trend? The overall school dropout rate has been declining. However, challenges remain for districts with rising and ethnically diverse enrollments. There is a need for adult education for the large percentage of people over 25 who have not completed high school. 24 • COMMUNITY INDICATOR: AIR QUALITY Indicates the number of days per year that air quality climbs above federally established clean air standards. Three main pollutants are measured: ozone, carbon monoxide, and PM 10 (particulate matter). Ozone is best known as a beneficial layer in the upper stratosphere, which protects the earth from harmful ultra-violet rays. When present at lower levels, however, ozone can irritate eyes and damage lungs. Carbon monoxide is a byproduct of the combustion of gasoline. Suspended particle material is another indicator of air quality. It is commonly measured as PM 10 (particulate matter of size 10 microns in diameter or smaller). PM 10 is composed of dust, ash and smoke. PM 10 is considered a telling indicator of air quality and is thought to be damaging to human health. Why Is It Important? Clean air is essential to building and maintaining healthy communities. The overall quality of air we breathe is fundamental to the health and welfare of a community. Air quality is affected by a wide range economic, environmental, and social decisions. Air pollution affects people's health. In fact, the rise in asthma and other respiratory illnesses are believed to be directly related to the increase in air pollution. Air pollution also affects the environment. Plants rely on sunlight and carbon dioxide to produce energy. If the air isn't pure enough, a plant can not produce enough energy, and it's oxygen production decreases. How Are We Doing? • The air in Orange County has been cleaner throughout the 1990's than in the previous decade. The worst air quality in the region is usually measured in inland areas that do not benefit from the ocean breeze. The poorest ozone concentrations are measured near the city of La Habra. • For the past 9 years, none of the cities in Orange County had days exceeding federal carbon monoxide standards. The measuring station located in La Habra has recorded a decrease in ozone concentrations from 49 days in 1986 to 5 days in 1998. The receptor area in Costa Mesa has reported zero days exceeding federal standards for ozone and carbon monoxide in 6 out of the last 8 years. • Receptors in Central Orange County(Anaheim/Los Alamitos) and El Toro are the only ones that measure PM 10 samplings for Orange County. These stations measure the percentage of days exceeding federal and state standards due to the fact that samples were not taken daily and the number of samples varies per receptor. Since 1996, there have been no days which have exceeded federal standards. The number of days exceeding the state standards near the measuring station located in Anaheim/Los Alamitios has decreased over 50 percent from a high of 45 percent(19 days out of 58 samples) in 1986 to a low of 19.7 percent in 1998 (12 days out of 61 samples). What Is The Trend? Air Quality is expected and required to be cleaner in the next millennium. Sweeping measures requiring cleaner fuels, vehicles, industrial operations, and consumer products will be needed to successfully reduce air pollution even as the region's population grows. 25 Q.?.4,1, Number of Days ExceedingFederal Standards I - iI 19-8-81 19871 1988 19891 19901 19911 19921 19931 19941 199 -19961 19971 19981 La Habra Ozone 49 41 . 33 36 35 28 31 13 9 4 5 1 5 CO 1 2 2 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Anaheim Ozone 28 25 19 13 11 11 3 3 5 2 1 0 2 CO 1 0 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Los Alamitos Ozone 5 4 17 11 10 10 4 4 5 0 1 0 0 CO n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Costa Mesa Ozone 10 2 2 0 3 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 CO 3 2 2 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 El ToroOzone 12 18 18 7 11 10 7 7 5 1 2 2 2 CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PM 10 SAMPLING DAYS EXCEEDING FEDERAL AND STATE STANDARDS* 19861 19871 1988 r 1989 j 19901 1991F 1992 1993 1994 1995 19961 1997[ 19981 Anaheim FED n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% n/a 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% STATE n/a n/a n/a n/a 33.9% 23.7% 19.6% 21.3% n/a 23.3% 10.0% 18.3% 19.7% Los Al FED 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% STATE 45.6% 35.6% 26.3% 38.2% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 23.3% 10.0% 18.3% 19.7% El Toro FED 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% n/a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% STATE 13.1% 24.6% 18.0% 33.3% 29.1% 15.3% 8.3% 11,5% n/a 18.3% 6.6% 7.1% 10.2% *Samples were not taken every day. The number of samples varies per receptor. Thus the data is shown as percentage of days measured. • • • • 26 e COMMUNITY INDICATOR: REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME Measures the average income of residents in Orange County. Total personal income is the sum of all wages and salaries, transfer payments, property and asset income and self employed income. It does not include contribution for social security. Orange County median family income is also measured. Why Is This Important? - - Personal income is an indirect measure for the quality of life. It enables Per Capita Income -Selected Counties `I individuals and families to make both necessary and discretionary $29,000 - ex enditures on goods and services. $27,000 Growth in real per capita income is more important as a regional target than 0 $25,000 growth of jobs alone. • $23,000 - a o o I How Are We Doing? • $21;000 • At$30,280 per person average a $19,o00 - �rx income in 1997, Orange County's $17,000 - per capita income is higher than that for Los Angeles, San Diego, $15,000 and Riverside counties. Per capita 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 income has increased by$10,390 Orange County a Los Angeles County between 1990 and 1997. —.—San Diego County —x—Riverside County J • Orange County's per capita income is ranked seventh in the state. • Income levels, based on median family income, have increased from 1980 to 1998. In 1980, the Orange County median family income was $42,290, increasing to $53,000 in 1990, falling during the early 1990's due to the recession, and rising again and reaching$61,812 in 1998. Megan Family Income Orange County 70,a0o - eo,000- mcco a0.wo- 3:1,000 . CCO 10,000 0 1981 1982 1983 1584 1985 1966 1987 '988 '989 1990 1991 1992 1S93 1994 1996 1596 1997 1998 Year 27 • l DRAFT COMMUNITY INDICATOR: LAND USE Indicates the change in land use within Orange County between the years 1972 and 1990. Why Is It Important? A community's character is determined by land use choices made over time. A healthy and sustainable community provides for all the community's needs- housing, business, services, agriculture, and open space for recreation and habitat preservation. To accomplish this a region must provide for a balance of land uses. How Are We Doing? • Approximately 42 percent of the county's land was uncommitted/vacant in 1990, with percent being set aside as regional, state, or federal open space. In 1972, 201,283 acres were vacant and in 1990, 168,441 acres remain undeveloped. That is an 18 percent reduction of uncommitted land since 1972. • A majority of the vacant land has been converted to residential use. In 1990, 24 percent of the total land in Orange County was utilized for residential purpose. This indicates an increase of over 30 percent for residential land use since 1972. • Orange County has a sufficient amount of open space for purposes of outdoor recreation. 18 percent of the total land use in 1990 was devoted to open space. The amount of open space has actually increased by almost 32,000 acres between 1972 and 1990. What Is The Trend? Much of the county's vacant land and biological diversity have been lost during the past several decades. Future development as a result of the projected population growth will place additional demands on the remaining resources. Orange County Land Use Inventory 250,000 ■1972 • 200,000 01980 ❑1985 111.11 ■1990 150,000 co f� Q 100,000 , • 50,000 • •rs Residential Commercial Industrial Open Space Extractive Vacant Public Land Use 28 \DRAFT) % Change % Change Land Use 1972-1980 1985-1990 Residential 22.9 8.7 Commercial/Office 47.2 29.1 Industrial 44.4 -5.9 Open Space 17.7 -5.2 Extractive -21.8 -27.8 Vacant -13.6 -4.9 Public 29.9 3.1 Total -0.02 1 • 29 COMMUNITY INDICATOR: FAMILY WELL BEING The number of reported child abuse and neglect incidences were measured for calendar years 1990-1997. It is important to note that the true number of child abuse incidences can not be shown here since an unknown number of cases go unreported or/either are not prosecuted. Why Is This Important? Normal childhood development requires a safe, nurturing environment free of physical or verbal abuse. A sustainable community must monitor the incidence of child abuse and take sufficient measures to prevent further abuse. Intervening early in a child abuse cases leads to fewer physical, psychological, and emotional problems in the lives of the children that are affected and helps reduce the continuation of abuse to future generations of children. An increase in the number of child abuse reports reflects a more volatile community, and therefore a greater need for child services and early intervention, as well as prevention and education programs for adults. How Are We Doing? • The number and rate of reported child abuse incidences has been on the increase. In 1990, the rate of child abuse and neglect was 47.8 per 1000 youth. In 1997 that figure had increased to 70.16 per 1000 youth. • A large increase of reported child abuse could possibly due to better reporting, greater awareness, and/or more incidences. • A slight majority of the cases involve females, and a majority of the cases also involve children under the age of 13. • The most common type of abuse is physical abuse, followed by neglect and sexual abuse. Child Abuse Rate (Child Abuse Reports per 1000 Youth) 80 70 — N V _ a 60 -- 1529 E 50 • o 40 — a .80 30 - CD 41 20 -- 10 -- 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Year 30 • The number of reported elder abuse occurrences have doubled in the past ten years. In 1990, the number of reported cases was 1,615 and in 1998 that figure increased to 3,421 reports of abuse. What Is The Trend? The large increase in the rate of child abuse(possibly due to better reporting, greater awareness, and/or more incidences) suggests a growing need for attention and services. Due to some legislation passed last year(SB 2199), a 42 percent increase in elder abuse reports is projected within the next few years. Senate Bill 2199 required counties to provide specific programs for elder abuse (e.g. 24 hour hotline, and emergency shelter), and these programs are now funded by the government. Elder Abuse Rate 4000 3500 • 3000 - 2500 - a c 0 2000 - L.m 1500 1000 - 500 - 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Year • 31 1341.117 COMMUNITY INDICATOR: WATER RESOURCES Measures the historical and estimated water consumption for Orange County and Indicates the water demand for Orange County(in acre-feet) within the Metropolitan Water District service area. Estimates of future reclaimed water supplies within the Orange County Water District are also measured. Why Is This Important? Maintaining water quality and ensuring reliable water sources are important goals in Southern California. Orange County has a population of approximately 2.7 million and continues to grow faster than most counties. With this "need" (i.e., demand) for more water, there is unfortunately a corresponding decline. (i.e., supply) of available water. As part of an arid geographic area, Orange County faces a unique challenge: how to continue to provide water for a growing population in the years to come. In the past this need could largely be met through, water purchased outside of Southern California has been the answer. In the years ahead, however, Orange County may not be able to continue to rely on imported sources to satisfy the growing demand for water. Current plans call for a reduction in the state's use of Colorado River water. The crux of the dilemma is this: California has used as much as 5.2 million acre-feet annually - 800,000 acre-feet more than its basic apportionment of Colorado River water—by relying on water not utilized by Arizona and Nevada. But with Arizona and Nevada requiring more water to supply their needs, California- and Orange County- must find a suitable replacement for this watersource. How Are We Doing? • Between 1990 and the current Past and Projected Water Consumption year, water consumption for Orange County - Orange County was the lowest in i.000.000 1992. In 1998, a total of 607,251 900,030 --13—Total Consumption acre-feet of water were - 800.0x, t Net anport consumed(one acre-foot of water 700000 Net Local _ - is estimated to supply a family of - F four with water for one year). 600'00° + . , This total was lower than the 1 500'333 previous three years and also 400,333 , lower than the total water 300,000 .1116. consumed in 1990 despite the 200,000 growth in population. ,33 000 • Net imported water has o I , + + It Itl decreased over the decade,while 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2010 2020 the use of water derived from • Year local sources has increased. This _ is due to the adoption of the California 4.4 Plan, which reduces the state's use of the Colorado River's water. Total water consumption in Orange County is expected to increase 25%by the year 2020. • Currently,the county's water supply is 60% groundwater and 40% purchased imported water. The projected water demand for the year 2020 for Orange County is 847,000 acre-feet, compared to current consumption of about 666,000 acre-feet per year. 32 r - • In 1997, urban uses accounted for 95 Water Demand percent of the Metropolitan Water Metropolitan Water District Service District's retail demand, while- Area for Orange County agriculture accounted for 5 percent of 700 - the demand. -- • Between 1980 and 1997, there was a 600 —i Agricultural Use — i p Urban Use = 48 percent decrease in the demand for 500 - agricultural use in the Orange County area served by the MWD, while the 0 400 -- demand for urban use increased by 42 2 _ a 300 - — percent during the same period. - • Most of the increased demand.for 200 — -_ _ urban use occurred between 1980 100 -- (463,600 acre-feet)and 1990 (653,000 acre-feet), since urban water use o , IM'- '. , I = ' , �, increased by only .3 acre-feet from 1980 1990 1997 1990 to 1997. Year • Annual pumping from the groundwater basin is expected to reach a historic high this year of 375,000 acre-feet. With reasonable investments in the basin, annual pumping can reach 466,000 acre-feet in the year 2020. What Is The Trend? These projections indicate,that future water demand will far outweigh available supply, even if there is no decrease in available water. This imbalance of supply and demand could become even more pronounced in an.extended drought. Faced with this problem, Orange County must secure a safe and adequate alternative source of water for the years ahead. An obvious answer would be to increase the --- percentage of purchased water, but projections Estimate of Future Reclaimed and recent events indicate that counting on Water Supplies increased purchases of water may not be Orange County economically feasible or wise, since the available 50,000 supply is continuing to decrease. Water agencies 45,000 must explore a variety of-alternatives, including 40,00011111 conservation. m 35,000 i. 30,0001 Reclaimed water has long been regarded as an 25,000 ■ti attractive, cost-effective water supply alternative if 20,000 because it involves using existing planned m u 15,000 II wastewater resources that are locally controlled a 10,0001111 and highly reliable. These essentially drought- 5,000 IIproof supplies are expected to play a significant 0U role in meeting the increasing needs of Orange 2000 2010 2020 County residents and employers. Year 33 . deitipt COMMUNITY INDICATOR: SOLID WASTE This information reflects the amount of waste that is landfilled, or disposed in Orange County rather than the total amount of waste generated in the county. Why Is This Important? The amount of solid waste deposited at landfills is important as a simple, measurable indicator of waste generated. A sustainable society recycles or reuses the waste generated as much as possible, minimizing the amount of waste sent to landfills. The Integrated Waste Management Act of 1989 requires cities and counties to divert waste from disposal at landfills. The law required that cities and counties divert 25 percent of all solid waste from landfill disposal by 1995, and 50 percent of all solid waste by 2000, through source reduction, recycling, and composting activities. In addition to saving material resources, reducing the amount of solid waste deposited at local area landfills will extend the life of such sites, possibly helping to maintain lower disposal costs for area residents and employers. How Are We Doing? • The amount of waste sent to landfills in the county has increased since 1990 from 4,046,306 tons of waste per year to 4,670,966 tons of waste in 1998. • The implementation of the recycling program did reduce waste for a limited time,but in 1995 the amount of waste aky-rocketed again despite recycling efforts. • As of December 30, 1998,. 92 percent of the jurisdictions in Orange County reviewed by the California Integrated Waste Management Board met the solid waste diversion rate of 25%. This measurement is above the total diversion rate being met among cities throughout the entire SCAG region(85 percent)as well as the rate for Los Angeles(70%) and San Bernardino (67%)counties. What Is The Trend? Solid Waste Disposal at Orange County Landfills According to the Integrated Waste (Tonnage) Management Board, California leads 5,000,000 the nation in recycling. Since the 4,500,000 implementation of source reduction I and recycling legislation in 1990, an 4,000'000 ' I estimated 100 million tons of wastes 3,500,003 have been kept out of landfills in the 3,000,000 I state. tin I 2,500,000 In Orange County, however, a 42 11111 ' percent increase in the amount of - 2,000,000 waste being sent to landfills 1,500,000 111111 I occurred between 1996 and 1998. lull ' The question remains: why do we 1,000,000 see such an increase despite 500,000 recycling efforts, and where are we I II 1 III ' going to dispose the waste in the 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1998 1997 1998 future? Year • 34 COMMUNITY INDICATOR: HEALTH CARE The percentage of Orange County adult residents without health insurance was measured by ethnicity and estimates for lack of health care coverage by racial categories for the county's children is shown. The number of AIDS cases between 1989-1998 is also reported. As well as statistics about behavioral/mental health for the county. Why Is This Important? Poverty in Orange County is obscured by the relative affluence of many residents. What is considered a livable wage elsewhere is low income here, and cannot be relied on to provide adequately for a family of four. So when a family struggles to.meet basic needs and feed their children, purchasing health care coverage is often not affordable. Considering the federal poverty level is set at$16,450 per year for a family of four, some Orange County residents cannot afford to buy their own health care coverage yet are ineligible for public assistance programs such as Medi-Cal. Approximately 5 million adult Americans suffer from severe mental illnesses such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, panic disorder, and obsessive-compulsive disorder. Because society fears and misunderstands mental disorders there is a stigma attached to those who suffer from these afflictions. This stigma limits their access to social support, services, and resources. How Are We Doing? • Nearly 17 percent(335,000)of Orange County adults are without any type of health care coverage. • Almost 52 percent of those without any health care coverage are from Latino/Hispanic and Vietnamese populations, representing 150,000, or one in four adults within these subpopulations. • Almost 13 percent(89,840) children in Orange County are without any health coverage. • 57 percent of children without any healthcare coverage are Latino/Hispanic; more than 50,000 (22%) Latino/Hispanic children are without any coverage. Just over 8 percent of Vietnamese children have no source of health care coverage.-More than 7 percent of white children are without any health care coverage. • Estimates for Lack of Health Care Coverage by _ Racial Categories for Orange County's Children • 25.0% - X" $ 20.0% •0 15.0% a a 10.0% El 5.0°,6 Tit_ nu a 0.0% - I I I I All Races White Hispanic Vietnamese Other All Other Asians or Races Pacific Islanders Ethnic Category 35 • 5 percent of all Orange County Health Needs Assessments survey respondents reported having a mental disorder, with a significantly higher percentage (9.1 %) reporting in the low income category. • According to the Mental Health Association, one-third of all people seeking treatment reported having been turned down for health insurance coverage because of their mental condition. • Nearly one-fourth of all respondents reporting having a mental disorder are not receiving treatment. • In Orange County, between 1994 and 1996, there was an average of 8.6 deaths by suicide Average Number of Suicides per 100,000 people. This is below the state 1994-1996 suicide rate of 10.7 deaths per 100,000. Orange County California United States • The National Center for Health Statistics showed 8.6 10.7 11.2 that from 1950-1995, no progress was made in reducing the incidence of suicide. During the same • period the total number of deaths by any cause decreased 40 percent, while deaths by suicide remained constant. • The number of reported AIDS cases has decreased since a high of 597 cases in 1992. Yet the number of reported cases (287) in 1998 remains higher than the 1989 report(262 cases). AIDS Cases Reported 1989 through 1998 Orange County 700 600 — 500 — co Gl N _ ✓ 400 0 E300 200 — 100 — 0 - ! 1 ! t I 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Year • 36 . Y Appendix A Sources for Graphs and Charts Description Date Source Population 1990-1998 1998 State Department of Finance Age Distribution 1995 Center for Demographic Research, CSUF Population 1990-2020 1996 Center for Demographic Research, CSUF FBI Crime Index 1997 California Department of Justice Poverty Level 1990 US Census Poverty Rate by Ethnicity 1990 US Census Total Housing Units 1990-1998 1998 State Department of Finance Overcrowded Housing 1990 US Census Persons per Unit 1998 Center for Demographic Research, CSUF Total Housing Units 1990-2020 1996 Center for Demographic Research, CSUF Residential Building Permits 1998 Economic Science Corporation Total Residential Valuation 1998 State Department of Finance Employment Growth 1990-2020 1997 Center for Demographic Research, CSUF Components of Employment 1994 Center for Demographic Research, CSUF Unemployment Rate 1997 California State Employment Development Department Taxable Transactions 1998 California State Board of Equalization SAT & ACT Tests 1998 California Department of Education Educational Attainment 1998 California Department of Education K-12 Enrollment by Ethnicity 1997 California Department of Education Air Quality Ozone&CO 1998 South Coast Air Quality Management District Air Quality PM 10 1998 South Coast Air Quality Management District Per Capita Income 1998 Center for Economic Research, Chapman University Median Family Income 1998 Center for Economic Research, Chapman University Land Use Inventory 1990 Orange County Administrative Office, Environmental Systems Research Institute Land Use Change 1990 Southern California Edison, Land Cover Survey Child Abuse Rate 1997 Orange County Social Services Agency Elder Abuse Rate 1998 Adult Protective Services, Orange County Superior Court Water Consumption 1998 Municipal Water District of Orange County Water Demand 1997 Metropolitan Water District Future Reclaimed Water Supplies 1997 Metropolitan Water District Solid Waste Disposal 1998 California Integrated Waste Management Board Lack of Health Care Coverage 1998 Orange County Health Care Agency Suicide Rate 1996 Mental Health Association of Orange County AIDS Cases 1998 National Center for Disease Control&Prevention y Y Receive and File—OCCOG Draft Report re: "Tracking Orange County—A review of Social, Environmental and Economic Performance Indicators" October 25, 1999 ATTACHMENT 2 STAFF COMMENT LETTER re: DRAFT "TRACKING ORANGE COUNTY — A REVIEW OF SOCIAL, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE INDICATORS", ORANGE COUNTY COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS, NOVEMBER 1999 • Draft Performance Indicators.CC Staff Report 5 j 72-2,-;:::,:;5'._-1.1- ,,:::-f:I-is:4:f-:- -':‘::'''''"."---:--. ,- -;.;-:::',.:;-.:7 ::=1 -'-:::::::7:::. --- -t � r r �- - tz � � tf•-.y. �� _ "r � L- ` ^r _ ;-....1 c 1 ft 4--4N 5 ��£> n :-.7,-.:',•1:.;� r S'i'n u 3.: '4, '� •-4 ` ', '�'-_ ` ,- y -`7;:,-...:- .+es , ( -» xwr :-,ta is' -.aA..+ '3 "e- ..2“7:::C ..r;'�•::--:''', t s N a. r y Z - tf�••``�/ 1 1 ,� i t1 -e a k 1 r• s `t-7.* .,2.---`6-;---1.:'`-'::`::::"r ~ r Y1 �7 ;k-'-(7;-'4,-.s < T,:-.7,,,,i-•:-..:-,----,:,--,,-.,:_-_-;7,...1:.fi \6.1 fir, 1:-*ei4 „'7'r.',.Lt 'c�`f A9..; --:.-..•=-"''.'.. .. •+' . r... . --r: � .. t." .-.1:'. . � `t yT,{fin 1� 3 .~ 35 .5-:i''''f _ I _ 3'3 '^_ � � - .t •-R .0 October 12, 1999 Orange County Council of Governments Attn: Rick Bishop 600 West Santa Ana Boulevard, Suite 214 Santa Ana, CA 92701 Dear: SUBJECT: COMMENTS RE: DRAFT "TRACKING ORANGE COUNTY—A REVIEW OF SOCIAL, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE INDICATORS", prepared by ORANGE COUNTY COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS,dated NOVEMBER 1999 The Department of Development Services of the City has reviewed the above-referenced report and finds the document most helpful in achieving a broad-based overview of various issues of concern within the County. It is understood the document is a pilot report, and is therefore limited in its scope of identification of issues of concern that can be looked at on a countywide basis. The format and information presented is helpful, concise, and easy to understand. It is being presented to our City Council, Planning Commission, and Environmental Quality Control Board to provide our local decision-makers additional information sources regarding the major issues within Orange County at the present time. The discussion as to what are "indicators" and "benchmarks", the use and misuse of indicators, and the sequencing of benchmarks is very helpful in understanding the process in determining appropriate and relevant indicators and benchmarks to be utilized on a county-wide basis. In dealing with the issue of how to sustain this type of an effort over the long-term, I would suggest initiating discussions with the educational and institutional members of the COG to determine if they have an interest in maintaining and funding this type of a program in the long- term, along with SCAG. It would seem this program could be incorporated into the ongoing "quality of life" identification efforts currently being undertaken by the University of California, Irvine. A cooperative effort among the universities and the institutional members of the COG, and SCAG, may be a productive avenue of discussion. C:\My Documents\OCCOGTerformance Indicators.Staff Comment Letter.doc\LW\10-12-99 City of Seal Beach Comment Letter re:OCCOG Draft Report re: "Tracking Orange County—A review of Social, Environmental and Economic Performance Indicators" October 12 1999 The community indicators presented in the draft report provide a basic overview of the general issues of importance within the county. It would be helpful in determining appropriate additional areas or issues to be included to provide a listing of additional areas of concern assessed by either the City of Seattle or the State of Oregon, allowing for a better understanding of the other types of benchmarks or indicators being utilized on other regions. It would seem appropriate to tailor the final set of"Community Indicators" to be as comparable as possible to other sets of indicators being developed within the region, such as SCAG. SCAG has recently issued a "State of the Region" document, and there should be some consistency between the indicators utilized by SCAG and OCCOG. I hope these comments are helpful, and commend the COG's efforts in producing this information document. In the future, this type of information will become more relevant to the decision's made by each governing jurisdiction within the SCAG and OCCOG region. These initial steps will hopefully lead to a successful and long-term commitment to produce useful and helpful "quality-of-life" indicators for the OCCOG region. If you have any questions of myself, please contact me (562) 431-2527, extension 313. I will be most happy to answer any questions or provide clarification regarding these comments. Sincerely, Whittenberg Director of Development Service • Performance Indicators.staff Comment Letter 2